Gas at $4, RV In Driveway?
Energy analysts are arguing over whether or not gasoline will reach $4 a gallon this summer. The industry association for gas-guzzling recreational vehicles says that most Americans who own RVs plan to take them out more often this summer than they did in 2006, no matter the cost. But an small independent publication for land yacht owners came up with a different result, and the official forecast for the travel industry agrees with the little guy.
Much depends on who turns out to be right. About 330 million “person trips” will happen in the U.S. in June, July, and August of this year. A person trip is one person traveling 50 miles or more, and a big chunk of the economy depends on what the overall number turns out to be.
On May 3, the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association reported that 76 percent of RV owners intend to use their rigs more often this spring and summer than they did last year. Only 4 percent said they were planning to go out less, and 20 percent said there would be no change. About half said that higher fuel prices would affect their plans, either by staying closer to home or staying longer in one place. The findings were based on a regular survey with 479 respondents, and a margin of error rate of 4 percent either way.
“I don’t see how they can say that,” says Chuck Woodbury, editor and publisher of RVtravel.com and related sites that attract about 750,000 visitors a month. Shortly after the poll appeared, Woodbury asked his readers how $4 a gallon fuel would affect their travels. About 3,700 responded, and three quarters said they would cut back on their driving. Only one-quarter said it would have no effect.
This week, Woodbury asked the exact question the RVIA had asked to get a better comparison. With about 1,200 respondents, 42 percent say their travel will be about the same, 30 percent plan to travel less, and 28 percent plan to travel more. “It’s just common sense. I don’t see how people can just keep paying whatever,” he says. Filling a 75 gallon tank at $3.50 a gallon costs $262.50, and at 12 MPG that tank takes you about 900 miles. It isn’t as much as a plane ticket and a motel, but it’s getting close.
The big dogs listen to the Travel Industry Association, which surveys 60,000 traveling households a year and maintains an error margin of 0.4 percent. TIA’s research director, Suzanne Cook, predicted this morning that summer travel in 2007 would be 1.4 percent higher than it was in 2006, because most people still have enough money to pay the higher fuel cost. However, she added that things could change dramatically if gas goes above $3.50 a gallon. One-third of those surveyed said they would cancel their trip if the national average price for gas reaches that point. About ten percent said they’re changing their summer plans at $3 a gallon.
“People who to take their RVs out are going to be staying closer to home this year,” predicts Woodbury. That might be good news for 19th century resort towns like Lake Geneva, WI, about halfway between Chicago and Milwaukee. But if you’re visiting Great Basin National Park in eastern Nevada, more than 200 miles from either Salt Lake City or Las Vegas, you’ll probably find things especially desolate this year.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:09 am
You know what they say, repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth. The RV industry is fighting for its existence. At 5-12mpg it’s only at matter of time before $3.50-$4.00 a gallon fuel affects most RVers and the RV industry. Think about it. At $4.00 a gallon, to fill up a 75 gallon tank will cost $300. At 8mpg will take you 600 miles. That’s about 2 days of driving and then another $300 to fill-up. Two more days another $300. Get the picture. Apparently the RV industry doesn’t.
May 19th, 2007 at 11:51 am
More evidence that a change is already happening was published yesterday. After 26 years of steady increases, the number of miles Americans are driving has leveled off. See the USA Today story at http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-05-17-gas-prices_N.htm?csp=34
May 19th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
So sad, but true. At $4.00 it really starts to affect this industry. I’ve done RVing all of my life, but know that it is at the brink of big change because of high fuel prices (not to mention the high prices for equipment!). But, it gets worse than that. When demand for RV travel eases off, it will have an effect on services that are available - restaurants, gas stations - and, most importantly, places to park! RV parks that will see diminished usage, will ultimately be forced to sell to developers - or just close, and that means fewer places to stay for RVers. The American roadways could become very lonely places to be (and dangerous). America is still not at “world oil prices”, which are around $5-$6 per gallon, but it is coming fast as China, India, and others are starting to import gross amounts of world market oil to fuel their econ expansions, thus putting real pressure on our prices. We’re screwed!
May 21st, 2007 at 10:11 am
I know there are many RV’ers out there who do well financially and the high fuel prices are annoying, but affordable. Many of us simply do not want to cut other things we spend money on, in order to afford the high fuel prices. Many other RV’ers simply cannot afford the high fuel prices. It might be different if fuel prices went up 5-10 cents a gallon per year and keep at a pace close to that. In
February 2001 I paid 99 cents a gallon. There is no way in my head, I can or will pay over $3.00 per gallon for the SAME liquid, going into the SAME motorhome, traveling the SAME distance. I have always been willing to pay more for something, if that product was changed to make it better, or added features. Maybe I am mentally handicapped, but i cannot make myself to pay over $2.00 a gallon for fuel that has not changed in 5 years. 10 cents a gallon more increase, I could deal with, maybe, but over $2.00 a gallon I cannot. And we know, a gallon doesn’t go far in a Motorhome.
I sold my Class C and my Class A motorhomes this week. The sole reason is fuel prices. I’m sorry, thats just how it is. I know some people say ignore the fuel prices and live, RV as normal. That just makes no sense. I always loved RV’ing, but without a doubt, the RV industry is going the way of Drive in Movie Theatres, doctors house calls and so on.
Mike G
May 21st, 2007 at 5:23 pm
The high gas prices may not be unbearable; if you typically only travel short distances in your RV, and tend to stay in one spot several days. In this case, the gas prices aren’t going to be so major a factor.
I think the days of 6000 mile round-trips across the country and back in an RV may be coming to an end, unless you’re really rich, or save up for it all year. 6000 miles / 8 mpg X $4 per gallon = $3000 just for gas. It simply doesn’t make sense; compared with driving an economy car, and staying at the more reasonably-priced motels. (or for that matter, taking a plane.) But it is a differentt lifestyle, that some people are going to want to maintain.
There are going to be some good bargains in RVs in the next few months. We just bought a fairly nice class A. The previous owner came down 20% on price. He said that largely because of the gas prices, he wasn’t getting any other serious offers. We intend to use it mostly within a few hundred miles of our home; staying for several days at our destination. We are going to keep the tank full, and go to destinations within one tank range round-trip; so that we won’t have to worry so much about shortages.
May 22nd, 2007 at 2:01 pm
On May 13 we returned from a trip to Orlando, Florida.Instead of taking our RV trailer, we rented a camp model there. We noticed that the smaller RVs Class B or trailer were not seen on the road. Almost the only ones we saw were Class A - the upper end of them. Probably the people for whom the high gas prices have the least effect. Usually on road trips we see many RVs of all types.
Marialice, Ludington, MI
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:19 pm
All of these comments are exactly the same as posted about fuel at $3/gal. and will likely be the same when it hits $5, and it will.
November 20th, 2007 at 7:34 am
Over the Labor Day weekend I drove down to Charlotte, NC from Rochester, Michigan. I did an informal survey of RVs on the road. There were almost none. We counted less than 10 on the 700 miles to our destination and about the same coming home. The RV Industry can advertise all they want that high gas prices have no effect on RV travel, but I would rather believe my lyin eyes. Right now gas in Michigan is $3.29 a gallon. If I go on a 500 mile round trip, it costs me $220. It’s time to park the RV until we can end Bush’s war in Iraq. That is when gas prices will become normal. Lonnie in Rochester, Michigan
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